The Axis My India exit poll has projected a razor-thin contest in the Bihar assembly elections, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) holding a slender edge over the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB). According to the survey, released two days before results are due, the NDA is estimated to secure 43% of the vote share, just two percentage points ahead of the MGB’s 41%.
The Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) — contesting its first assembly election under Pavan Varma’s leadership — is projected to draw around 4% of the vote, while smaller parties and independents together are expected to claim about 12%.
The survey, conducted across different education groups, indicates a consistent but narrow NDA advantage across most segments. Among voters with no formal schooling, the NDA and MGB are nearly tied at 43% and 42%, respectively.
The NDA’s lead slightly widens among the more educated, touching 44% among graduates and 41% among postgraduates, compared to the MGB’s 41–42% in these categories.
The JSP, meanwhile, appears to have performed better among the educated electorate, with its support rising from 2–3% among less-educated groups to 7–10% among graduates and professionals.
Axis My India noted that the NDA’s coalition includes the BJP, JD(U), LJP (Ram Vilas), HAM(S), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (Upendra Kushwaha), along with support to one independent candidate. The MGB comprises the RJD, Congress, VIP, and Left parties, along with extended support to smaller allies.
While the NDA’s slight lead may offer it early comfort, the exit poll suggests that the contest remains too close to call, especially with regional variations and turnout trends likely to play a decisive role when results are declared on November 14.
The Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) — contesting its first assembly election under Pavan Varma’s leadership — is projected to draw around 4% of the vote, while smaller parties and independents together are expected to claim about 12%.
The survey, conducted across different education groups, indicates a consistent but narrow NDA advantage across most segments. Among voters with no formal schooling, the NDA and MGB are nearly tied at 43% and 42%, respectively.
Post 8 of 17 - Bihar - Exit Poll - Education-wise - Vote Share (%)#BiharElections2025#BiharElections#ExitPoll#AxisMyIndia@PradeepGuptaAMI pic.twitter.com/w5YLJQeR60
— Axis My India (@AxisMyIndia) November 12, 2025
The NDA’s lead slightly widens among the more educated, touching 44% among graduates and 41% among postgraduates, compared to the MGB’s 41–42% in these categories.
The JSP, meanwhile, appears to have performed better among the educated electorate, with its support rising from 2–3% among less-educated groups to 7–10% among graduates and professionals.
Axis My India noted that the NDA’s coalition includes the BJP, JD(U), LJP (Ram Vilas), HAM(S), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (Upendra Kushwaha), along with support to one independent candidate. The MGB comprises the RJD, Congress, VIP, and Left parties, along with extended support to smaller allies.
While the NDA’s slight lead may offer it early comfort, the exit poll suggests that the contest remains too close to call, especially with regional variations and turnout trends likely to play a decisive role when results are declared on November 14.
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