Is a US recession coming?

The US economy may be heading into rough weather — and when America slows down, the world feels the tremors. With Trump tariffs putting global trade under pressure and India closely tied to both the US and China, a possible recession in the US can, at the very least, slow down growth rate in India too. Here's what economists and investors are saying:

5 key questions answered

1. How close is US to a recession?
Five agencies and experts have following to say:

Agency Key Reasons

2. US recessions since 2000

3. Can US recession trigger global recessions?
US recessions can go global when they coincide with a systemic financial shock (2008) or an exogenous event (pandemic). Otherwise, spill-overs are milder. IMF has ruled out a global recession.

• 2001 US recession did not cause a global one. World GDP grew 2.5%, but trade growth collapsed.
  
  
• 2007–09 was a US & global recession — first post-war global contraction (~1.3% world GDP '09)
  
  
• 2020 Covid lockdown pushed world GDP down by ~3%, deepest since 1945
  
  

4. China & India recessions since 2000
Periods of outright GDP contraction (past 25 years) China

• Q1 2020 (–6.8% y/y) – first contraction since 1976
  Notes: Annual growth still +2.2% for 2020; 2022 growth just 3% (worst outside 2020)
  
  

India

• FY 2020-21 (–7.3%, with –24% in April–June 2020); RBI classified H1 FY21 as a “technical recession”
  

Notes: Previous near-recessions

• 1991 balance-of-payments crisis (real GDP +1%)
• 2008-09 slowdown (growth fell to 3.1%, but stayed positive)

5. Why a recession in India is different from one in the US